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Thread: EBOLA AND THE FUTURE OF CIVILZATION

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    EBOLA AND THE FUTURE OF CIVILZATION

    Well I know this is off topic. But I wonder why we never see real aliens. I believe it's because intelligent life always self destructs in the end.

    I write this after watching the news talk about EBOLA. Yes I now it's really no big deal if the world would work to eradicate it. But why does the CDC lie over and over again. About fever being necessary. Soon someone on a plane will spread it to 100s and they will do it with out a fever. Part of the current procedure is to check if one has a fever of over 100.4 F it was 101.5 F just a few weeks ago. Yet it is a known fact that many get EBOLA and spread it with "NO FEVER" yet if you go to a hospital in the US today with no fever and have EBOLA no one will now until your dead because under current guidelines you would not be checked. This is one reason so many health care workers in Africa are dead.

    http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056...&#t=articleTop

    from the article:

    "Clinical Manifestations and Case Fatality Rate
    Table 1 provides information on demographic characteristics and symptom frequency in patients with confirmed or probable EVD with a definitive outcome in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. The most common symptoms reported between symptom onset and case detection included fever (87.1%), fatigue (76.4%), loss of appetite (64.5%), vomiting (67.6%), diarrhea (65.6%), headache (53.4%), and abdominal pain (44.3%). Specific hemorrhagic symptoms were rarely reported (in <1% to 5.7% of patients). “Unexplained bleeding,” however, was reported in 18.0% of cases. These patterns are similar in each country (see Supplementary Appendix 1)."

    I have read several articles by those that first discovered EBOLA and there are to many to quote. But why does the lame stream media insist that fever is necessary. I have talked to nurses. They think fever is needed. But it is not!!

    Yes I know more people will die of the flu this year and maybe even next year. But the panic due to the lies about how EBOLA is spread and the fact we will miss critical cases in hospitals because of the lies puts us at greater risk of not just an outbreak but a panic that could disrupt the worlds economies. I would like to hear from those that read here that are smarter than me to tell me why the continuing lies from the CDC and main stream media. And why are not at least nurses at hospitals given the full current set of facts concerning its spread?

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    Quote Originally Posted by biject.bwts View Post
    But I wonder why we never see real aliens.
    Because most are unrecognizable or invisible or avoid us, look different then human or to big or to small or not visible by science known human senses or measuring instruments.

    Quote Originally Posted by biject.bwts View Post
    I believe it's because intelligent life always self destructs in the end.
    Progress of life forms go always via up and downs (like training your body muscles), but downs shall seldom destroy all, otherwise the progress halt. This last is Ebola's problem at this moment, it kills itself to quick to result in a pandemic.

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    About the fever:
    Fever is a measurement of the body to kill a detected virus. If the body does not detect the virus, then no fever starts. So that is probably the reason why people can die without a fever. But thats just my assumption. I am not a doctor.

    About the ebola virus in general:
    To me the whole epidemic looks man-made. I think that if the emitter stops spreading the virus then the deaths will go down. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the virus was emitted by the WHO itself.

    I believe it's because intelligent life always self destructs in the end.
    There are no other intelligent life form known but what lives on our planet. Just because we are destroying our world it doesn't mean that all other intelligent life forms are as dump as we are.

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    hmm who said no intelligent life present xept human, explain to me alien abductee`s stories, travis walton kind stories, if you say it`s a hoax tell me what motivates these people (i speak about cases with sane and stable persons) - i didn`t see travis living after this in penthouse and driving ferrari ,saw documentary where he tells he still scared to go that wood, btw if i`m not wrong some bacteria detected on mars or it`s fossils (make google or own research) all i know nobody wants to research such topics and ridiculed imho, lot of unexplained on this! planet not talking about other 8-))

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    I think its easy to explain alien abductee stories. There are most likely 2 explanations
    One is they where asleep and dreamed it. As a kid I was scared of monsters under the bed or closest. When I would fall asleep I felt awake yet could not move and bad things would happen. Then one day my mind decided it was dreaming and then I would change the monsters into beautiful women ( had the best wet dreams then ). I would also enjoy floating over the bed though a dream and would go on space ships rides. But I realized it wasn't real not sure how many have vivid dreams reach that state of control. In college I would do my homework while a sleep. And then get up early to write it all done. I think I have lost most of that ability except when a problem interests me like bijective bwt I did that work dreaming and test while I was asleep good german beer helps with that. I have thought alot about compression and encryption but getting to lazy to write code much any more.

    Two I had a friend who saw aliens and claimed he almost was killed he believed it was real. Until the next day when he was in a panic talking to some people that were laughing about it. He found out they had slipped him LSD and even then it took him some time before he realized that was the most likely explanation.

    I really was more interest on this thread of why the government lies about EBOLA. I do think if aliens ever come to earth they will destroy us. They may put some of us in a zoo to laugh and study but I hope we never meet any until we are better able to survive and have expanded to most of this galaxy. But I think at best we are but a flash in the pan and man kind if it evolves at all we be more like the separate species of the Eloi and the Morlocks. I use to work with a lot of Mormans I told them I was not a Morman but more of a Morlock. Yes I like science and science fiction makes for good dreams.

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    A good article on Ebola from The Atlantic, addressing some of the issues raised here.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/health/ar...1-days/381901/

    I also recommend The Coming Plague by Laurie Garrett. (It's one of the very best science books I've ever read.)

    http://www.amazon.com/The-Coming-Pla.../dp/0140250913

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    Just a worm:

    To me the whole epidemic looks man-made.

    It's likely man-made, but not in the conspiracy-theoretic sense you mean. Emergence of diseases like Ebola is to be expected given the demographic shifts, population increases, and deforestation we've been seeing for decades, and increasing ease of travel. If you understand evolutionary biology and a bit about viruses, it's pretty predictable in a general way. (Unfortunately, specific outbreaks are intrinsically unpredictable.)

    Nasty deadly things like Ebola (and worse) have been around forever, but usually used to burn themselves out when people traveled mostly by walking. (They'd wipe out everybody in a village and that would be that, or maybe they'd wipe out everybody in a valley but not cross a ridge to the next valley, or whatever.)

    Fast travel makes it much easier for very nasty things to spread internationally. (Like the Spanish Flu at the end of WWII, which killed more people than guns and bombs did, because it was spread internationally by soldiers going home to various countries.)

    Evolutionarily, it's fine for a virus or bacterium to kill its host, as long as it spreads to more than one other person on average before it does so, and can keep doing so---e.g., because people travel and expose new people within the incubation period. The idea that very nasty host-killing diseases will just "burn themselves out" only makes sense when hosts' travel is limited.

    You don't need malicious scientists to engineer that sort of disease; nature does a fabulous job of genetic engineering in the normal course of things. (And a lot of the nastiest things have been in Africa for millions of years, because we and the other monkeys evolved there. It's Gotten a lot easier for those things to spread within Africa, and from Africa to elsewhere.)

    Oh... another really good book if you're interested in this sort of thing: Guns, Germs, and Steel by Jared Diamond. (It got a Pulitzer, BTW.)

    http://www.amazon.com/Guns-Germs-Steel-Fates-Societies/dp/0393317552/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1414396155&sr=1-1&keywords=guns+germs+and+steel



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    It's Gotten a lot easier for those things to spread within Africa
    It's true, that it's often a spot in Africa, when it's about a virus outbreak. But why Africa? Shouldn't Europe be affected much more often? We have a higher population density over here and there is nearly no place in Europe where there aren't people moving through all day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by just a worm View Post
    It's true, that it's often a spot in Africa, when it's about a virus outbreak. But why Africa? Shouldn't Europe be affected much more often? We have a higher population density over here and there is nearly no place in Europe where there aren't people moving through all day.
    Perhaps because Europe was colonized in virtually any space.
    While Africa is widely inurbanizzata.
    In places where the density is very high, as well as the exploitation of animals and soil (eg Asia, Hong Kong etc.) many diseases "new" take root.
    And most importantly, because in Europe (at least Western countries) have the most advanced hospital in the world. While in many places in Africa you can die from dehydration very easily, it is almost impossible in a hospital "modern".
    Even Ebola passes from a proportion of 90% to 50% mortality, only with water.

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    Quote Originally Posted by biject.bwts View Post
    But why does the lame stream media insist that fever is necessary. I have talked to nurses. They think fever is needed. But it is not!!...And why are not at least nurses at hospitals given the full current set of facts concerning its spread?
    Maybe because there are very few experts in these diseases. The majority of doctors and nurses do not deal with infectious diseases.
    You could train, but it takes time and money.
    And there is not a lot of both.

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    A lot of the nasty bugs that can infect humans come from Africa because that's where we evolved, since long before we were human, and they can still live in our nearest relatives, the African apes and other monkeys.

    (Like the other apes, we are basically funny-looking African monkeys. Few people realize it, but we are more closely related to the African monkeys than the African monkeys are to South American monkeys.)

    The Ebola virus family, in particular, commonly lives in African monkeys and probably has for many millions of years. Some strains are very nasty and transmissible to humans, others aren't. At least some strains can also be carried by fruit bats.

    That's common with viruses---they evolve to be able to infect several different kinds of animals, and cross back and forth between those "reservoir species," evolving along the way. If African monkeys are among the reservoir species they can infect, they are more likely to be able to "cross over" into the human population, because we're African monkeys, too.

    Another big problem with Africa is that it's relatively poor and lots of Africans have really lousy health care and public health systems. Outbreaks that could easily be contained in Europe or America can often keep spreading there, creating a much larger pool of infected humans.

    That means everybody in the world should be very concerned about health care and public health systems in Africa. If we are indifferent to Africans' health, eventually a bunch of Africans will get something very nasty that evolves to be very transmissible among humans, and it will inevitably spread worldwide.

    Ebola in particular is pretty scary in that regard. We know it can evolve to be much more transmissible, because some strains have already done so---like the Ebola Reston strain, which became very transmissible among monkeys but luckily not to cross into humans.

    If a strain of Ebola evolves to be transmissible by air, like the Reston strain did, while being as infectious to humans as the Zaire strain, we are in big, big trouble.

    That is much more likely if we don't take serious action to help the Africans, so that outbreaks don't spread widely there. If they do, there's a much bigger chance that the virus will evolve within humans into a form that can't be contained, even with US- or Europe-level health care.

    There are a bunch of ticking time bombs out there, and the way things are going, it's only a matter of time until something truly nasty emerges and evolves to spread worldwide and kill hundreds of millions of people---likely causing global panic and crashing the world economy so that a billion or more people starve to death.

    We are nowhere near equipped to deal with that sort of thing.

    Unfortunately, people are very ignorant about this stuff, and tend to do all the wrong things when they hear about the dangers.

    For example, I overheard a guy in a restaurant a couple of days ago saying he was worried about his daughter because her next-door neighbors "are from Africa." Not because they'd recently returned from a particular place in Africa where there's an outbreak, and been around people infected with Ebola, but because "they're from Africa."

    The problem is that we're all from Africa. We shouldn't be paranoid about Africans in the US; we should be worried about Africans in Africa and what we can do to to help the people who need help, before it's too late.

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    biject.bwts:

    I have read several articles by those that first discovered EBOLA and there are to many to quote. But why does the lame stream media insist that fever is necessary. I have talked to nurses. They think fever is needed. But it is not!!

    Right, fever is not necessary and a small but significant percentage of people who die from Ebola never run a fever.

    I can only guess that the messaging about fever is to avoid a panic and counter-productive overreactions.

    If we monitor people at risk for Ebola for fever, that's easy and will catch something like 90 percent of cases. If we reduce the transmission rate by (say) 90 percent, that's pretty good and is likely enough to prevent a major outbreak. (Assuming that we don't mess up other things, like spreading the virus within hospitals.)

    The key thing is that you want to ensure that an infected person transmits the virus to less than one other person, on average. If you do, a few more people may get it, and a very few may die, but it won't increase exponentially and get out of control, which is the overwhelming consideration, and rightly what epidemiologists are most concerned about above all.

    What you don't want is a panic, and stupid overreactions like quarantining anybody coming from Africa, or even any health care worker returning from a hot zone.

    Suppose, for example, that 1 percent of hot-zone health care workers return infected with whatever they were dealing with, and checking for fever catches 90 percent of those cases. Then there's a 99.9 percent chance that either they're fine, or even if they're not, they won't transmit it to somebody else.

    If we quarantine health care workers for a month on the 0.1 percent chance that they might have the virus and give it to somebody else, what will the result be?

    More people will die, because it will discourage health care workers from going to hot zones and getting things under control there.

    To me, the obvious Right Thing to Do is to give health care workers combat pay for going to hot zones, to make it worth being quarantined for a month when they return, and still motivate them to go.

    And we should have a massive international program to deal with outbreaks like this, mainly funded by first-world countries, because it's a big deal.

    But that wouldn't fly with the right-wingers, who'd characterize it as liberal do-gooding at taxpayer expense. They'd crucify any president---at least any Democratic president with an African name---for proposing to spend their hard-earned dollars on poor people in Africa.

    So the do what they can, taking the most important, least drastic and cheapest measures---and cheaping out on addressing the big problem, which is lousy health care for poor dark-skinned foreigners with funny-sounding names thousands of miles away.

    (Like in the Onion headline "4000 Brown People Dead Somewhere.")

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul W. View Post
    biject.bwts:

    I have read several articles by those that first discovered EBOLA and there are to many to quote. But why does the lame stream media insist that fever is necessary. I have talked to nurses. They think fever is needed. But it is not!!

    Right, fever is not necessary and a small but significant percentage of people who die from Ebola never run a fever.

    I can only guess that the messaging about fever is to avoid a panic and counter-productive overreactions.

    If we monitor people at risk for Ebola for fever, that's easy and will catch something like 90 percent of cases. If we reduce the transmission rate by (say) 90 percent, that's pretty good and is likely enough to prevent a major outbreak. (Assuming that we don't mess up other things, like spreading the virus within hospitals.)

    The key thing is that you want to ensure that an infected person transmits the virus to less than one other person, on average. If you do, a few more people may get it, and a very few may die, but it won't increase exponentially and get out of control, which is the overwhelming consideration, and rightly what epidemiologists are most concerned about above all.
    I think you wrong about the 90% it more like 87% but lets go with your numbers for now
    Yes you will ensure a very low rate from those coming in the country that are monitored and noticed before they spread it. And yes some heath care workers might get it and that infections caught this way will decrease. And not enough infected this way to cause an expanding pool of the infected.

    However the few that get through and are not discovered till later. Have a high chance to infect several people. And these newly infected people may never have left the country so hospitals would not even test them for EBOLA till much later. Once the newly infected transmit it to others you will see a very high exponential rate. The testing would have to be a routine thing for anyone with any of the symptoms and the government we not do that until it's out of control.


    What you don't want is a panic, and stupid overreactions like quarantining anybody coming from Africa, or even any health care worker returning from a hot zone.

    Suppose, for example, that 1 percent of hot-zone health care workers return infected with whatever they were dealing with, and checking for fever catches 90 percent of those cases. Then there's a 99.9 percent chance that either they're fine, or even if they're not, they won't transmit it to somebody else.

    If we quarantine health care workers for a month on the 0.1 percent chance that they might have the virus and give it to somebody else, what will the result be?

    More people will die, because it will discourage health care workers from going to hot zones and getting things under control there.

    To me, the obvious Right Thing to Do is to give health care workers combat pay for going to hot zones, to make it worth being quarantined for a month when they return, and still motivate them to go.

    ....
    The fear of not causing a panic is going to cause one because of the lies. I would pay health care workers and quarantine them for at least a month. I would not allow others to come in the country if they have been in those countries in the last month. Yes we must look for a cure. I think all sides of the political spectrum want a solution. But we should be very careful not to let it get a foothold in the rest of world.

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    The US military has chosen a very funny way for the quarantine of his soldiers who return from Africa.
    They are kept in Italy (!) for the time necessary.
    With regard to the Ebola fever associated with I think is the main symptom, which unfortunately is very similar to influenza and winter illnesses.
    Even malaria, of course, but it is not widespread in the West.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fcorbelli View Post
    The US military has chosen a very funny way for the quarantine of his soldiers who return from Africa.
    They are kept in Italy (!) for the time necessary.
    With regard to the Ebola fever associated with I think is the main symptom, which unfortunately is very similar to influenza and winter illnesses.
    Even malaria, of course, but it is not widespread in the West.
    I can't believe we did that to Italy. Unless its part of a big plan to get Italy to hate Americans more than they already do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by biject.bwts View Post
    I can't believe we did that to Italy. Unless its part of a big plan to get Italy to hate Americans more than they already do.
    Yes, USA do it
    http://www.ilgazzettino.it/articolo....T&ssez=VICENZA

    http://news.in-dies.info/2014/10/sol...colo-di-ebola/
    ...

    In Italy we have two of (supposed) most advanced labs of Europe, and a lot of USA's military.

    And about 300m from where I am now, there is a "special" hospital for infectious diseases

    I would like to point out that the objections to the quarantine of US soldiers are largely minority (NIMBY).
    Net of political opponents (former communists, we have quite a few) there is no anti-US sentiment in Italy.
    Right near where I live thousands of Allied soldiers are buried WW II.
    In that case no one has complained of their presence, despite the bombings and civilian deaths.
    Last edited by fcorbelli; 1st November 2014 at 00:39.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fcorbelli View Post
    Yes, USA do it
    http://www.ilgazzettino.it/articolo....T&ssez=VICENZA

    http://news.in-dies.info/2014/10/sol...colo-di-ebola/
    ...

    In Italy we have two of (supposed) most advanced labs of Europe, and a lot of USA's military.

    And about 300m from where I am now, there is a "special" hospital for infectious diseases

    I would like to point out that the objections to the quarantine of US soldiers are largely minority (NIMBY).
    Net of political opponents (former communists, we have quite a few) there is no anti-US sentiment in Italy.
    Right near where I live thousands of Allied soldiers are buried WW II.
    In that case no one has complained of their presence, despite the bombings and civilian deaths.
    The reason is probably simply logistical and not malicious. When U.S. soldiers are/were injured in Iraq and Afghanistan and needed extended hospitalization, they were sent to Germany, probably because that was the most convenient spot. That's all.

    The U.S. certainly wouldn't benefit from a big Ebola outbreak in Europe. Quite the opposite would be true.
    Last edited by nburns; 1st November 2014 at 00:50.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nburns View Post
    The reason is probably simply logistical and not malicious. When U.S. soldiers are/were injured in Iraq and Afghanistan and needed extended hospitalization, they were sent to Germany, probably because that was the most convenient spot. That's all.

    The U.S. certainly wouldn't benefit from a big Ebola outbreak in Europe. Quite the opposite would be true.
    ahem... here we. have airplanes, too. so you can easily take off to US and land in about 7 hours.
    about ebola... better in Europa than US. or better anywhere than US. this is understandable.
    please note that US have large vessels, where you can keep some aoldiers. ahem...

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    Quote Originally Posted by fcorbelli View Post
    ahem... here we. have airplanes, too. so you can easily take off to US and land in about 7 hours.
    That's kind of my point. There is probably a great deal more movement of people between Europe and the US than there is between West Africa and the US. So an outbreak in Europe would be essentially an outbreak in the US -- extremely perilous.

    Sorry if my point got lost, perhaps due to language issues. I think we're in agreement.

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    The family of viruses housing Ebola and Marburg is ancient, and the two viruses last shared a common ancestor millions of years ago, scientists say:
    http://www.buffalo.edu/news/releases/2014/10/041.html

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